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Is the S&P 500’s 2024 rally a sign of more to come?

The S&P 500 has experienced a remarkable surge in 2024, delivering one of its strongest performances since 1928. While past performance often fuels optimism, the critical question for investors looking at the year ahead is whether this bullish trend can sustain itself for the broader equities market.

Looking back on 2024

Year-ahead-forecasts in December 2023 about what 2024 would bring for investors were dismal, even after a year of more than 20% returns for the S&P 500. Perhaps what played a part in the pessimistic outlook for 2024 was the political uncertainty and heightened emotions of an election year.

However, historical data suggests that such concerns are often overblown. The S&P 500 has not only shown resilience but posted a noticeable positive performance in 83% of election years. Any post-election losses tend to be retraced by end of year. In fact, the index generously retraces its losses, typically trading higher into the year-end and into the new year, up to two months following a U.S. election.

Figure 1: S&P 500 Performance Day After Election vs. 2 Months After Election Day

As of Dec. 13, the S&P 500 is up 27%. If it finishes up over 20%, this will represent a spectacular two-year run for the S&P 500.

Heading into 2025

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest growth potential of the S&P 500 at 9% by the end of 2025. While the outlook remains positive, the bull market could face challenges in mid-2025. Risks such as a potential economic slowdown, tightening monetary policy or geopolitical uncertainty could lead to a market pullback. And with the S&P at an all-time high currently, investors may be nervous that a market correction is on the horizon.

What does this mean for the broader equities market?

The S&P 500 is a widely used benchmark for tracking trends in the broader equities market due to its breadth and diversity. For this same reason, it provides a simplified view of market performance at best, obscuring trends within specific sectors of the economy.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC. As of November 29, 2024 via usbank.com

Market movements are complex and driven by a combination of factors, including but not limited to domestic and foreign policies, interest rates, geopolitical events and corporate earnings. These elements often interact in ways that make it difficult to isolate the impact of any single variable—such as an election cycle.

Recently, stocks have rallied amid expectations that tax cuts, deregulation and increased government spending will spur economic growth but the long-term impact of policies such as tariffs, foreign relations and fiscal spending remains uncertain.

The complex and unpredictable nature of financial markets means that growth may not be as consistent as projected, especially if key assumptions about policy or global conditions fail to materialize.

3 Investor Takeaways for 2025

1. Time in the market vs. timing the market

Investors should look at staying invested in the market for the long term and consider high-quality stocks. Investing in solid, well-managed companies provides a stable foundation for long-term growth, even during market dips or economic uncertainty.

2. Strategic portfolio rebalancing 

Strategic portfolio rebalancing can help investors to adjust sector exposure based on changing market conditions. This helps capture opportunities in sectors with favorable valuations or strong growth potential.

3. Diversification beyond equities

Investing in other asset classes beyond equities, such as fixed income or alternative investments, may help improve risk-adjusted returns and provide a hedge against market fluctuations. This approach can potentially reduce volatility and better align a portfolio with an investor’s risk tolerance and long-term objectives.

This is an important time to connect with a wealth management professional to ensure your investments are aligned with your financial objectives and that you’re on track to reach your wealth goals. Reach out to us today—we are here to assist you in making informed investment decisions and navigating the complexities of the current market landscape with confidence and clarity, ensuring you’re well-positioned to seize tomorrow’s opportunities.

Insights

Potentially lower your taxes with tax-loss harvesting

Tax-loss harvesting, also known as tax-loss selling, is a powerful strategy that can enhance the tax efficiency of your investment gains. This strategy involves selling underperforming investments and realizing a capital loss that can then be used to offset capital gains from other investments.

As a brief refresher:

  • Capital gains are triggered when you sell an investment for more than the price you purchased it for (profit).
  • Capital gains are triggered when you sell an investment for less than the price you purchased it for (loss).
  • Capital gains are included in your annual taxable income and taxed at your marginal tax rate. For individuals, the inclusion rate is 50% for capital gains up to $250,000 and 66.6% for the remaining amount above this threshold.

While the idea of intentionally selling a losing investment may seem counterintuitive, this can be a smart way to reduce your tax liability or in other words, the amount of taxes you owe.

Tax-Loss Harvesting Example

Suppose you purchase 100 shares of XYZ at $10-per-share, for a total of $1,000. Over time, the price of XYZ falls to $6-per share, and your 100 shares are now worth $600. You choose to sell all XYZ shares for $600 and realize a loss of $400 on your initial investment. This loss is considered a capital loss and can be applied against any capital gains realized in the same tax year, thus reducing your total taxable capital gains.

Say you also realize $2,000 in capital gains in that same tax year. Your $400 loss can be used to offset part of those gains. After netting the capital gains and losses, you would pay taxes on $800 of your earnings at the 50% inclusion rate for capital gains ($2,000 – $400 = $1,600 * 50%).

Had you not used tax-loss harvesting, you would report $2,000 in capital gains and pay taxes on $1,000 (50% of $2,000). In this example, you are reducing your reported capital gains by 20% using tax-loss harvesting.

Key Considerations

The above example provides a simplified illustration of tax-loss harvesting. In reality, most investors hold diversified portfolios with investments across account types, asset classes and sectors that require regular rebalancing and are subject to different tax treatments. This interplay can make tax-loss harvesting even more nuanced. Several other considerations should be kept in mind when tax-loss harvesting.

1. Eligible Investments

Tax-loss harvesting only applies to realized capital gains and losses in non-registered accounts. Losses within registered accounts, such as RRSPs and TFSAs, cannot be used for tax purposes, as gains and losses within these accounts are not taxed until withdrawals are made. In other words, capital losses in registered accounts cannot offset capital gains in non-registered accounts.

Alternative and private investments, such as private equity or private real estate, may also benefit from tax-loss harvesting, though challenges like liquidity, valuation, transaction costs, lock-up periods and differing tax treatments must be carefully considered.

2. Superficial Loss Rule

The Superficial Loss Rule prohibits you from claiming a tax deduction on a capital loss if you repurchase the same or identical investment within 30 days before or after the sale.

The Superficial Loss Rule is an important consideration when tax-loss harvesting, but with careful planning, you can sidestep it using strategies such as waiting 31 days before repurchasing the same investment or buying a similar but not identical investment.

3. Carry-Back & Carry-Forward Rules

Capital losses can be carried back three years or forward indefinitely to offset capital gains in those years.

For example, if you realize a capital loss in 2024, you could carry that loss back to offset any capital gains from 2021, 2022 or 2023 by filing a T1 Adjustment Request. If the loss isn’t used in the current year or carried back, it can be carried forward to offset capital gains in future years.

Final Thoughts

Tax-loss harvesting is often associated with year-end tax planning, as investors try to reduce their tax liability for the current year. However, it can be done throughout the year, especially if there are market fluctuations that create opportunities for harvesting losses. It’s important to work with an experienced financial professional like a Rothenberg Wealth Management Advisor to assess whether you can benefit from tax-loss harvesting and how you can implement this strategy to maximize your portfolio’s tax efficiency and reduce the amount of taxes owed.

Are you interested in tax-loss harvesting? Contact us by using the form below.

Tax Planning

What is changing about the capital gains tax?

The new capital gains tax policy, effective from June 25, 2024, brings significant changes for individual investors, corporations, and trusts. This new policy imposes a higher tax rate on earnings from the sale of assets, like stocks or investment properties, also known as capital gains.

Capital Gains Inclusion Rate Changes

  • Individual Investors:  Previously, individual capital gains exceeding $250,000 were taxed at a rate of 50%. However, under the new policy, these gains will now be subject to a higher tax rate of 66.67%. It’s important to note that this increased rate only applies to gains earned after the initial $250,000. The first $250,000 of gains within a tax year will still be taxed at the original rate of 50%.
  • Corporations and trusts: Corporations and trusts, unlike individual investors, will not benefit from the lower rate on the first $250,000 of annual capital gains. Instead, they will be subject to the higher tax rate of 66.67% right from the first dollar of gains.

The increase in the capital gains tax inclusion rate will have various implications depending on your situation. For example, the new policy may affect the timing of your investment sales, as well as the types of assets you choose to invest in. It’s important for you to understand how these changes will impact your overall tax liability and to plan accordingly.

Contact Us

If you have concerns about the new policy’s impact on your investments, we are here to help. Our team at Rothenberg Wealth Management provides free, professional advice and guidance. Our advisors can help you navigate the intricacies of the new capital gains tax landscape, understand the specifics of the policy, assess your current investment portfolio, and develop a plan to minimize your tax liability.

How Can I Avoid the Old Age Security Clawback and Maximize OAS payments?

Old Age Security (OAS) is a source of income for many Canadians during retirement, but many retirees are concerned about losing a portion of their OAS benefits due to clawback rules that reduce these benefits after a certain income threshold. In this article, we’ll share some strategies to prevent your OAS benefits from being clawed back, allowing you to maximize your retirement income.

Old Age Security Clawback Calculator: How Much Can I Expect to Receive?

Before we begin, let’s review what the Old Age Security benefit is. If you are already familiar with OAS, you can skip this part and jump straight into the different strategies to reduce the impact of the OAS clawback. These strategies include:

What is Old Age Security (OAS)?

Old Age Security is a pension benefit that provides a monthly payment to most Canadian retirees and seniors. If you meet the legal status and resident requirements for receiving OAS, you can start enjoying OAS benefits as soon as age 65 with the option to defer payments until the age of 70.

How much you will receive in OAS will depend on your income. As of April to June 2024, the maximum OAS monthly payment amount for individuals aged 65 to 74 is $713.34, and for those aged 75 and over, this amount is $784.67. These amounts are adjusted on a yearly basis depending on inflation.

It’s important to note that there is a maximum annual net income threshold for OAS eligibility. If your income exceeds this threshold, you will not be eligible to receive any OAS benefits. This is particularly relevant for high-income earners.

(Maximum payments and income thresholds – April to June 2024, Source: CRA Website)

You can find all the details about maximum payments and income thresholds (April to June 2024) on the CRA website here in addition to other relevant information about Old Age Security.

Remember, OAS is a valuable pension benefit that supports Canadian retirees and seniors. Ensure you meet the requirements and understand the income thresholds to make the most of this benefit.

Now let’s discuss the different types of strategies to manage potential OAS clawback. Most strategies presented below focus on reducing your annual net income below the clawback threshold, since this is what the amount of OAS you receive will depend on.

Income Splitting

To manage your retirement income efficiently, consider income splitting with your spouse or common-law partner. This method involves sharing up to 50% of eligible income, such as from Registered Retirement Income Funds (RRIFs) or pensions, which can keep individual incomes below the clawback threshold. It’s a strategic way to reduce your overall tax burden and effectively manage your retirement income, ensuring you receive the maximum amount of OAS you’re eligible for.

Utilizing Tax-Advantaged Savings Accounts: TFSAs and RRSPs

Early strategic withdrawals from Registered Retirement Savings Plans (RRSPs) to fund your Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) can be a smart move, especially if you can do so before reaching higher OAS clawback thresholds.

Another option is contributing to an RRSP if you have the available contribution room. However, it is important to note that if you are already retired and getting OAS, contributing to an RRSP may not be an option if you don’t have the contribution room or are over the age of 71. As a reminder, the last day you can contribute to your RRSP is December 31 of the year you turn 71 years old.

Another strategy involves transferring your least tax-efficient investments, like Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICS) and bonds, into a TFSA to reduce your taxable income and minimize future tax implications. In this way, you lower your income threshold and can qualify for a maximum in OAS benefits.

Deferring OAS Payments

Another effective strategy you may benefit from is to delay receiving your Old Age Security (OAS) payments if you’re working past the age of 65. You have the option to defer your OAS up to the age of 70.

For each month you delay the start of your OAS pension up until age 70, your future monthly payments may increase by 0.6%. You can delay payment of OAS for up to 60 months, or 5 years, which means your OAS payments will go up by 7.2% per year up to a total maximum of 36%.

Old Age Security Clawback Calculator: How Much Can I Expect to Receive?

Example of Impact of Delaying OAS

(Application for the Old Age Security Pension ISP-3550 Form, Source: Service Canada)

Delaying your OAS payments boosts your eventual payments and results in larger payments in the future but also provides a window to manage other retirement funds under lower tax brackets if you don’t need the OAS retirement income right away. You could also delay the first payment indefinitely, but there wouldn’t be any advantage.

It’s important to keep in mind that you won’t be eligible for other OAS benefits like the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) and Allowance during the pension deferral period.

Here is a table with an estimated breakdown of OAS payments.

*This table is based on an annualized monthly maximum pension of $713.34 on January 1, 2024. Assumes conservative inflation adjustment of 2% per year on the annualized monthly pension. Adjusts pension by 10% at age 75.

One important thing to note about the table above is that it doesn’t factor in any investment returns made on OAS payments. Some people wish to take their OAS pension early and invest that money rather than delaying OAS to the age of 70.

When deciding whether to defer your OAS payments, it’s important to consider different factors besides your income requirements and the potential income boost promised to you by an OAS deferment. Other factors you may want to consider include your health and any dependents.

Flow-Through Shares (FTS)

Another viable option to minimize your OAS clawback is to invest in Flow-Through Shares, or FTS. FTS can give you a tax deduction to reduce your taxable income. These types of investments are not for everyone as they can carry high risk, which can lead to significant losses, so it’s important to speak to your advisor to know if this option is suitable for you.

Other Strategies

Consider other financial planning strategies such as reallocating income to reduce or eliminate the clawback of OAS benefits. For instance, reallocating eligible pension income to enable both spouses to receive the pension income tax credit can be beneficial.

Additionally, waiting until the end of the year you turn 71 to convert your RRSP to a Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF) and taking only the minimum RRIF withdrawals annually can keep your net income low.

Prudent investing is also important along with understanding how different income is taxed. Not all investment income is taxed the same, so it’s important to select investments that are tax-efficient, which an advisor like a Rothenberg Wealth Management Advisor can help you with. This can also mean rearranging or rebalancing your portfolio to continue generating the income that you need but also change the type of income you receive from interest, dividends, or capital gains to return of capital, to further reduce your taxable income in a given year. Return of income capital, or ROC, is not taxable in the year it is received.

Conclusion

Old Age Security Clawback Calculator: How Much Can I Expect to Receive?

Applying strategies like income splitting, utilizing Tax-Advantaged Accounts like TFSAs and RRSPs, and opting to defer OAS payments until you turn 70 years old can be practical steps that can safeguard your income in retirement, ensuring you maintain as much of your OAS benefit as possible. Remember, every financial decision you make impacts your retirement comfort, so planning with these strategies in mind is critical.

The journey to maximizing your Old Age Security doesn’t have to be navigated alone. Whether you’re fine-tuning your current retirement plan or just starting to ponder over your future finances, professional advice can make all the difference. Contact a Rothenberg Wealth Management Advisor for retirement planning advice to explore how you can implement these strategies effectively in your overall wealth management plan.

government pension plan, old age security, Retirement Planning

Rothenberg Wealth Management Supports the Calgary Interclub Squash Association as Title Sponsor

(Image: Rothenberg Wealth Management Chief Operating Officer Raj Pandher, third from the left, pictured with the champions of the Calgary Interclub Squash Association’s Men’s Level 1 Final and the Rothenberg Cup Trophy).

Rothenberg Wealth Management is proud to have served as the Title Sponsor for the Calgary Interclub Squash Association’s (CISA) Men’s Level 1 Squash League, furthering our ongoing partnership with CISA from previous years.

Our Chief Operating Officer Raj Pandher was in attendance to represent our firm at the Men’s Level 1 Finals at the Calgary Winter Club on Saturday, April 20, 2024. Raj presented the Rothenberg Cup trophy to the members from the winning team. Congratulations to Bow Valley Athletic Club on their victory!

Federal Budget 2024: Here are the takeaways

The release of the Canadian federal budget is always a highly anticipated event. Serving as the government’s financial blueprint, it outlines its priorities and proposed spending initiatives across diverse sectors.

On April 16, 2024, the 2024 federal budget was released. Now, let’s take a closer look at what it contains and what you should know as an individual or business operator:

For Individuals

  • Personal Tax Rates: Personal tax rates remain unchanged from the previous year.
  • Increase in Capital Gains Inclusion Rate: The capital gains inclusion rate will increase from 1/3 to 2/3 or 66.6% on capital gains exceeding $250,000 when realized on or after June 24, 2024.
  • Lifetime Capital Gains Exemption (LCGE): The LCGE will be raised to $1.25 million. The indexing of the LCGE will resume in 2026.
  • New Capital Gains Inclusion Rate for Entrepreneurs: Entrepreneurs will benefit from a new 1/3 capital gains inclusion rate for up to $2 million of certain capital gains realized.
  • Principal Residence Exemption: Capital gains from the sale of a principal residence will continue to be exempt from tax.
  • Increase in Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP) Withdrawal Limit: The withdrawal limit for the Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP) will be increased from $35,000 to $60,000 for withdrawals from a RRSP made under the HBP after April 16, 2024.
  • Extension of Repayment Grace Period for HBP: The repayment grace period under the Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP) will be extended from 2 to 5 years.
  • Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Calculation Change: The calculation of the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) will be changed. This revision allows individuals to claim up to 80% of the proposed charitable donation tax credit when calculating AMT, instead of the previous 50%.
  • Extension of Disability Support Deduction: The list of expenses covered by the disability support deduction has been extended. You can find a complete list of eligible expenses here on this CRA list.

For Businesses

  • Corporate Tax Rates: Corporate tax rates remain unchanged from the previous year.
  • Increase in Capital Gains Inclusion Rate: The capital gains inclusion rate for corporations and trusts will be increased from ½ to 2/3 or 66.6% on capital gains realized on or after June 24, 2024.
  • Temporary Increase in Capital Cost Allowance (CCA) Rate: The capital cost allowance (CCA) rate for eligible new purpose-built housing projects will temporarily increase from 4% to 10%.
  • Amendments to Immediate Expensing: Amendments will be made to immediate expensing for productivity-enhancing assets purchased by businesses.
  • New Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses: The new Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses proposes to return a portion of the fuel charge proceeds to Indigenous governments and small to medium businesses.
  • Additional Details on Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit: Additional details are proposed on the eligibility and implementation of the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit.

The release of the 2024 federal budget brings important updates for individuals and businesses. It is essential for individuals and businesses to review the budget carefully and seek professional advice to understand how these measures will impact their financial situations and investments.

For more information on how these budget measures may affect your financial situation, or have any questions about other financial or investment matters, please contact Rothenberg Wealth Management. We would be pleased to assist you.

Taxes and Investment Income Calculator

A taxes and investment income calculator is a practical tool used to find out the amount of taxes you will owe, depending on where you live, and how much you would keep in your pocket. This calculator is especially useful if you have various sources of investment income since they are taxed at different rates.

Why Use a Taxes and Investment Income Calculator?

Understanding Your Tax Liability

Calculating taxes and investment income manually can be prone to errors. Using a calculator can provide you with clarity and assurance when it comes to handling your tax responsibilities. By inputting relevant financial information, the calculator can generate tax estimates for various types of investment income, providing you a better understanding of your tax liability.

Investment Insights

Interest, capital gains and eligible dividends are three types of possible investment income. Since they are taxed at different rates, a taxes and investment income calculator can help you compare their after-tax implications. This can help you make more informed investment decisions on which type of investment offers the best returns.

How Does a Taxes and Investment Income Calculator Work?

To use a taxes and investment income calculator, you need two basic details:

  • Your taxable income (which you can find on line 260 of your personal income tax
    return)
  • The amount of investment income

The calculator takes these inputs and uses them to compute the total amount of taxes you
would owe and how much you would keep based on the amount of investment income you
have entered,

Benefits of Using a Taxes and Investment Income Calculator

For New Investors

Using a taxes and investment income calculator empowers new investors in the wealth building phase by providing a clear understanding of how investment income and taxes impact wealth accumulation. It guides them towards tax-efficient investment decisions and assists in determining optimal asset allocation. This empowers them to make informed and strategic decisions, laying a strong foundation for their financial future.

For Pre-Retirees

For pre-retirees, a taxes and investment income calculator offers critical support for transitioning into retirement. It helps them estimate their investment income and taxes, enabling more effective budget and expense planning. By understanding the tax implications of different investment options, pre-retirees can make informed decisions to enhance tax efficiency.

For Retirees

For retirees, using a taxes and investment income calculator provides valuable insights for financial planning. It offers a clear picture of how investment income and taxes will impact overall retirement income, helping retirees to estimate their investment income and taxes more accurately.

Conclusion

A taxes and investment income calculator is a handy tool for anyone who receives income from their investments. It provides a transparent, predictable way to see how much tax you would pay and how much you would keep. Utilizing this tool can give you valuable insights into your financial situation and help you make decisions regarding your savings goals and investment strategies.

As you navigate the complexities of investment income and tax implications, it’s essential to have a comprehensive financial plan in place. To gain personalized insights and strategic guidance tailored to your specific financial goals, consider reaching out to a Wealth Management Advisor at Rothenberg Wealth Management. Our experienced advisors can provide expert assistance in optimizing your investment strategies, maximizing tax efficiency, and aligning your financial decisions with your long-term wealth goals. Contact us today to schedule a consultation and take proactive steps towards securing your
financial future.

Claire Churchill-Smith Promoted to Wealth Management Advisor

Professional growth and development for our associates is very important to us, which is why we are excited to share that Claire Churchill-Smith has been promoted to Wealth Management Advisor!

As a Wealth Management Advisor, Claire provides personalized long-term wealth planning solutions for clients’ financial needs, including investment recommendations, portfolio management, retirement planning, estate planning, and financial education. Claire joined the Rothenberg team in August 2021 and previously worked closely with the advisor team at the West Island office, providing comprehensive support in various areas of wealth planning and client service.

We look forward to seeing Claire grow in her new role as she works with our existing clients and builds her own portfolio of clients with the firm. Please join us in congratulating Claire on her promotion!

To learn more about Claire: https://www.rothenberg.ca/pointe-claire-qc-team/claire-churchill-smith/

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